A cyclist rides in front of a Anti-Brexit billboard during the ten year anniversary of the 2016 EU referendum.
Photo: Jason Fong / Strathclyde Telegraph

Today marks 10 years since the UK voted to leave the European Union—a referendum that many say has cost us more than it was ever worth.

Short-term, the referendum caused a 1.7% growth in inflation by 2017, and by 2025, the UK GDP had reduced by an estimated 6%-8%.

Originally, a decision led by an effort to take back full autonomy over decision-making and regain control of immigration, the consequences have translated differently than promised back in 2016. The failures in the UK economy contributed to by Brexit have not gone unnoticed by the British public, either.

In a recent poll carried out by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), when asked about what they believe the primary benefits of Brexit have been, a large majority of British voters responded, “don’t know” or “none of the above”.

Even the primary concern that sparked Brexit- immigration control- is believed by British voters to have gotten worse since the referendum. Now, an inverse of 2016 is taking place: 52% of Brits would vote to rejoin the EU if given the chance.

It’s not just Brits who want the UK to rejoin the EU, either. Two-thirds of EU citizens would support the UK rejoining the bloc. The president of Finland, Alexander Stubb, directly called for the UK to rejoin, saying, “We need a UK voice in Europe. We really miss you guys.”

A decade on and seven PMs later—what’s next for the UK?

Keir Starmer resigned as Prime Minister on Monday morning following continuous calls from opposing parties to step down and general dissatisfaction, largely coming from the cost-of-living crisis and broken promises to “make Brexit work”.

The top projected pick for Prime Minister is Andy Burnham. A charismatic, newly elected Labour MP for Makerfield and former mayor of Greater Manchester, but what does he think about this decade-long saga?

Although Burnham has publicly said Brexit has been “damaging” to the country, he has seemingly little interest in rehashing anything to do with the matter soon, insisting it will only cause a “permanent rut” and back-and-forth arguing. However, Burnham is not opposed to rejoining the EU entirely and would like to see it happen “in his lifetime”.

Following Kier Starmer’s resignation, a UK–EU summit, scheduled for July 22nd and intended as a key moment in resetting post-Brexit relations, has reportedly been cancelled.

Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey said in response:

“This is the cost of chaos for Britain. A crucial opportunity to finally repair the damage of Brexit, grow the economy and cut the cost of living has been thrown into turmoil.

“Andy Burnham must hold these talks as soon as possible and secure a bold new deal with Europe, including joining the single market.”

The Question of Scottish Independence

Scotland has felt disenfranchised by the referendum since 2016. 62% of the country voted to remain in 2016, with every constituency having a remain majority. Scots have been concerned about their voices not being heard since then, feeling the effects of the democratic deficit due to a larger population of voters in England, which was the largest ‘leave’ voting majority.

In 2023, the Scottish Government reported that Brexit has had a significant impact on tourism, trade, inflation and the efficiency of law cooperation, because of the decision that “people in Scotland soundly rejected,” according to Angus Robertson, back in 2023, former secretary for the Constitution, External Affairs and Culture.

The SNP and Scottish Greens have used this as a consistent argument in favour of Scottish independence and eventually rejoining the EU. If Andy Burnham secures his projected place as Prime Minister, this could have great implications for Scottish independence.

In contrast to Starmer, who was firm in his stance of not allowing another referendum for independence whilst he was in office, Burnham has been known to have more compassion for the emotional argument for Scottish independence. He said he “understands” the Scottish people as someone from Northern England. However, he has also branded nationalism as ‘ugly’ and ‘divisive’, so how he will handle the question of independence is unclear for now.

What felt stuck in place with Starmer could finally start moving again with a new leader, ten years later. Whether Burnham wins the leadership contest or if he supports the British call for reintegration into EU relations, nobody knows what the next Prime Minister’s term will look like—but one can only hope it will last until the end of the term this time.