Let us be clear: the last two years have been an utter disaster for the SNP. From financial scandals and factional infighting, to declining public services and back-pedalling on key policy commitments – there’s little achievement the Scottish government can sell to the Scottish electorate leading up to 2026. However, with a new and not overly popular UK Labour government taking charge during a period of economic turmoil with difficult choices on the horizon just 100 days in the door, Scottish Labour Leader Anas Sarwar has a fair few problems of his own before he can be sure to win back the trust of Scots for the first time since Alex Salmond brought the SNP to power in 2007.

Following two scandal-plagued SNP First Ministers leaving Bute House since 2023, John Swinney has made it his mission to improve the party’s fortunes. With less than two years to go, he’s set about returning the government to the “moderate centre-ground” of the Scottish electorate. In my view he has two primary issues to tackle: uniting the party towards the shared ambition of Scottish independence and pinning the blame for a stagnant UK-wide economy at Labour’s door – rightly or wrongly so.

SNP HQ has already started a new ad campaign targeting “austerity Anas”, trying to suggest Labour would roll back SNP advancements such as scrapping prescription charges and the graduate tax – although it must be said that Shadow Education minister Pam Duncan-Glancy has denied Labour would ditch any of these policies. Additionally the SNP has joined the other major parties in blaming Labour for a cut in winter fuel funding for pensioners, portraying Sarwar as in the pocket of the Prime Minister. Significant figures such as Stephen Flynn have also criticised Labour for a new ban on North Sea Oil licenses, harping back to the days of “Its Scotland’s Oil”, however this is unlikely to have a significant impact as Labour has already stated they are headquartering their new clean energy company in Aberdeen and that oil will still play a role for “years to come”.

The appointment of Kate Forbes as Deputy First Minister and Economy Secretary in May showed a marked shift to the political right for the SNP. The self-confessed “Cameron-conservative”, who opposed the gender reform bill and gay marriage and oversaw vast cuts to councils as Finance Secretary under the Sturgeon administration, signals to the public that the SNP are once again the party of “economic competence”. 

A shift throughout government can already be seen such as the removal of the peak rail fare cap in October and ditching the policy of universal free school meals – on top of the previous Yousaf government’s decisions to axe the fuel insecurity fund, ditch ambitious net-zero targets and freeze council tax rates. This shows a clear departure from the Sturgeon era of the SNP challenging Labour to the left, towards a party reminiscent of the “Tartan Tories” of the 1970s that helped Maragret Thatcher get into power.

The issue, of course, is the party can only achieve these goals if they can unite their electorate under their core mission – independence – something that has drastically slipped under the radar in recent years despite steady support. Yet an opportunity remains – if a UK Labour government fails to deliver real progress by 2026. Of course, the last time Swinney led the SNP in 2003 the party received just 27 seats – their lowest count in the history of the Scottish Parliament – so supporters will hope that with age comes political wisdom.

On the other side of the aisle is a newly reinvigorated Scottish Labour Party, led by the relatively inoffensive Anas Sarwar, whose primary enemy over the coming 18 months will seem to be his own party over in Westminster. With the party winning a staggering 37 seats up from just one in 2019, to an untrained eye the 2026 election would seem like a shoe-in for Labour, however enthusiasm for Labour has already begun to decline – a similar situation can be seen from the 2010 general election where Labour won 41 Scottish seats and subsequently went on to lose the 2011 Scottish election in a landslide when Alex Salmond won an outright majority for the first time.

Many voters naturally associate UK Labour with the Scottish party, so a lack of economic growth and a focus on quarrels such as Winter Fuel Payments and political donations could put a roadblock in Sarwar’s stride to power. Sarwar needs to focus less on defending Starmer and more time on going after the SNP’s record and coming up with practical solutions to the problems facing working Scots.

To successfully win over Scottish voters Sarwar needs to adopt a strategy like their Welsh sister party known as “Clear red water” a phrase coined by former Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford. This would involve distancing the party from the Westminster leadership to disprove critics assumptions of Scottish Labour merely being a “branch office” of the national party. This might include adopting more radical and bold domestic policies not politically viable down south and outlining their vision as a distinctly “pro-Scottish” party to reach out to “Yes” voters that abandoned Labour in the wake of the 2014 referendum, by advocating further devolution of powers, sometimes referred to as “Devo-max” and negotiating a framework under which a future independence referendum could be held – possibly through a two-thirds “supermajority” vote in the Scottish Parliament similar to the amendment of other major issues such as electoral law.

Top campaign issues to look out for will likely centre around “kitchen table issues” such as the NHS and social care, education, housing, employment, local economy, energy and transport – areas the Scottish government has struggled with in recent years, although Labour will have to offer a bold alternative to sway dissatisfied voters away from the SNP.

Although it’s a bit too early to speculate, if the SNP were to lose the election, Swinney’s position as leader would likely become untenable, leaving the door open to either the popular Westminster leader Stephen Flynn or the slightly more controversial Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes – a pact between the two has even been suggested.

Looking forward to the Holyrood elections in May 2026, neither party is likely to reach an overall majority so a coalition or confidence agreement will be almost essential. The clearest path to government for Labour would be a coalition with the LibDems, like their agreement from 1999 to 2007 – although if this were to fall short of the magic number of 65 this could present major issues when it comes to passing a budget or any major legislation – having to rely on the goodwill of their adversaries to get them over the line.

Neither party would be willing to strike a deal with the Tories (or Reform for that matter) – such an act would surely be a kiss of death, and the Scottish Greens seem reluctant to back either party without major concessions after the perceived betrayal of Yousaf and the elevation of Forbes. With the parties currently tied at 31% each according to the latest Survation poll, this election will certainly be one to watch, and I intend to be with you every step of the way.