Leader of Scottish Labour Party, Anas Sarwar
Credit: Jason Fong / Strathclyde Telegraph

The events leading up to Scotland’s May elections have been dire for the Labour Party, as Starmer currently bears one of the worst approval ratings of any Western leader.  

The successive resignations of three disgraced cabinet members, housing minister Angela Rayner, chief advisor Peter Mandelson and chief of staff Morgan McSweeney, have tarnished Labour’s approval in the UK to an extent many political experts deem irreparable. Many are now calling for the Prime Minister’s early resignation.  

Subsequently, Labour’s share of the polls in Scotland has been completely fragmented. The party has lost up to 13% of its votership to the SNP and Reform UK, with a further 21% hanging in the balance, according to YouGov.  

In recent weeks, Anas Sarwar, Scotland’s Labour leader, has tried to distance himself from the ministerial misconduct at No. 10.  Following the resignation of Morgan McSweeney last week, Sarwar has called for Starmer’s resignation, telling reporters on the 9^th of Feb that “The leadership in Downing St. has to change”. 

Labour’s odds may now be determined by how Sarwar can distance himself from Starmer’s failing leadership and establish a successful campaign to clear Reform UK in the polls.  

Reform, on the other hand, has proved to be a more formidable opposition for the SNP, currently possessing 20% of the vote against the SNP’s 34% (YouGov).  

Their leader, former Conservative Treasurer Malcolm Ian Offord, has campaigned for British values throughout his short political tenure. Offord has previously drawn large criticism from the Scottish electorate during the 2014 Referendum; over a cinema advert campaign he fronted, suggesting citizens of an independent Scotland would be denied access to London’s hospitals. 

At his inaugural speech in Bishopton on the 26^th of Jan, the Reform leader pushed for continued economic ties with the UK Treasury, calling for the slashing of “red-tape nonsense and regulations” and to restore Scotland’s tax bands. Offord also criticised the SNP for failings in the NHS, and the ongoing QUEH water scandal.  

Offord’s free-market economic policies are no doubt emblematic of his time as treasurer of the Conservative Party, and his recent defection is reflective of his hardline unionist values. Offord also claimed that immigration into Scotland has “destabilised communities”, undermined Christian faith and harmed the Scottish economy.  

Meanwhile, John Swinney of the Scottish National Party is facing tough questions about problems in Scotland’s housing sectors and public services, as well as persisting drug problems.

Another major concern for the SNP pertains to Peter Murrel’s criminal charges. The former Chief Executive and husband of Nicola Sturgeon was found to have embezzled at least £460,000 from the party’s funds, a case which has tarnished the legacy of Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP.  

When asked for details on the case by reporters from the Scottish Sun on the 17^th of Feb, Swinney responded repeatedly: “This is a live case, and I am not going to make any comment upon it”. The case is shaping up to what could become a major barrier for Swinney’s campaign, but this is yet to be seen.  

Anas Sarwar and John Swinney have a long campaign ahead if they are to win back the trust of their Scottish electorate. Reform’s newly appointed leader has seemingly set out a unique fiscal agenda for Scotland, but his uber-unionist and borderline neoliberal outlook may require significant revision to convince his votership, as more Scottish voters seek secession from Westminster’s misconduct.