Image Credit: Rob Prange/ Flickr

Naomi Osaka and Aryna Sabalenka each own four Grand Slam titles respectively. Both are archetypal power players and both are 28 years old. Yet, despite all these similarities, Osaka v Sabalenka has always had the weird feeling of a clash of generations.

Osaka enjoyed her success from a young age. At just 20 years old, she defeated Serena Williams in the infamous 2018 US Open final 6-2, 6-4 and backed this success up five months later, beating Petra Kvitova 7-6, 5-7, 6-4 to lift the Australian Open. It made her the first woman to win consecutive Grand Slam titles since Serena Williams in 2015. She would repeat the same feat in front of an empty Arthur Ash Stadium, winning the 2020 US Open title and the 2021 Australian Open. Representing Japan, and with the world seemingly at her feet, the question was whether Osaka could create a hard-court dynasty and how long it would take her to carry this success onto the clay and grass courts.

While this was happening, Sabalenka was steadily climbing up the rankings. Unlike Osaka, she had yet to make her name on the Grand Slam stage, but was consistently performing on the tour. In 2020, she reached the top 10, won three titles and was looking like a promising prospect heading into 2021. While she would reach world number two, her Grand Slam record continued to waver. Early exits in Australia and France were followed by two semi-final appearances at Wimbledon and the US Open.

Although 2021 would be the year in which everything changed for Osaka.

The former world number one struggled with mental health issues and withdrew during Roland Garros for those reasons. After an early exit from the US Open, she announced she would be taking a break from the sport, admitting that winning no longer made her happy.

Returning in 2022, she made the Melbourne Summer Set semi-final before losing to Amanda Amnisova in the 3rd round of the Australian Open. While a Miami Open final would come, she struggled with fitness for much of the season and come the start of 2023, she had dropped to 42 in the world. Then, she announced she was expecting her first child and would be taking a break from the tour in 2023.

And this is where the “clash of generations” feelings arise. After a 2022 that saw Aryna Sabalenka struggle with her serve, hitting 398 double faults throughout the year, just as Osaka left the sport, the Russian took her stock to the next level.

Sabalenka arrived in 2023 as a different prospect altogether. She bulldozed her way to the Australian Open final, before beating Elena Rybakina in an instant classic 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 to win her first Grand Slam. Making the US Open final for the first time in her career, she snatched the world number one title from Iga Swiatek.

Since then, she has rarely looked back and has been comfortably the best player in the world. Three more Grand Slam titles, along with three runners up places, she has spent over 100 weeks at the top of women’s tennis and approaches every Grand Slam as the favourite.

For Osaka, it’s been different. Her return to the tour in 2024 caused real excitement. After a bumpy start to the season, she came so close to beating Iga Swiatek in the Roland Garros second round. She led 5-3 in the final set and had one match point. Rusty at the pressure points, she was unable to close the match out, the Pole fighting back for a 7-5 win.

For a while, it seemed that would be as good as it got. Abdominal injuries plagued her progress, and it wasn’t till the American hard court swing last season that she really began to play the tennis we know she is capable of. The former US Open champion reached the final at Montreal, losing to Victoria Mboko, before advancing to the semifinals in New York. Once again, injuries plagued the start of the 2026 season, having to pull out of the Australian Open, due to more abdominal issues.

So, it brings us to the present. Two powerful players, enjoying hard court dominance in their peak, how would the match up fare 6 years after their first meeting in 2018 (Osaka won in three sets).

The pair had already met three times this year, with Sabalenka winning 6-2, 6-2 in Indian Wells, 6-7, 6-3, 6-2 in the Mutua Madrid Open and 7-5, 6-2 at the French Open. When they were drawn in the same quarter for the Wimbledon draw, based on recent history, Sabalenka was the clear favourite.

Yet, as the tournament developed, anticipation grew. That’s because Osaka stormed through the opening three rounds without losing a set. It was early days in the context of a fortnight, but it seemed that the 28-year-old had found her best level since returning to the tour in 2024. Flat-hitting and first-strike tennis, the last 16 had been set up nicely. So, when the two arrived on Centre Court yesterday, the London crowd waited in anticipation.

From early on, Osaka took the initiative. The first set raced by, the Japanese seemingly unfazed by an opponent who had won three matches in a row against her.

She admitted on the on-court interview,

“Going into this match, I lost to her like three times in a row, so that really sucked, so I wanted to turn it over and I’m really glad I had the opportunity to do that.”

Both were hitting the ball hard, but Osaka, who is not known for her movement, was much better at the counter-punching side of the game. Her quick and incisive steps helped her to move in and out of the corners when under pressure before hitting away any short balls with ease.

Sabalenka, in comparison, seemed cumbersome and awkward on the back foot. All too often, she was off balance and unable to stake her claim in the rally. Any time Osaka got the front foot, she wouldn’t let go. She won 87% of her first serve points and didn’t lose her serve at any point.

Sabalenka said after the match,

“I’m not happy with the way I played but yeah, she overpowered me. I fell like it was an incredible level from her. I tried my best but unfortunately it’s not this year (to win Wimbledon).”

It’s a fair reflection. Osaka brought her A-game and was comfortably the better player, yet Sabalenka can have some regrets as she played considerably below her normal level.

As all Champions do, though, she rallied back, forcing a tie-break in the second set. Sabalenka had won 21 consecutive Grand Slam tiebreaks before Sunday. All good records come to an end, though, and Osaka secured the victory with a 7-2 pummelling. It felt somewhat inevitable.

Throughout the set, Osaka rushed through her service games at ease, while Sabalenka fought with all her might to hold onto her own serve. It’s a testament to her mental strength and resilience that she was able to force a tiebreak. However, unless something drastic changed, there was only going to be one winner.

Having said that, since her return to tour, in the biggest of matches, Osaka has at times failed to close matches out. As mentioned, she was serving to beat Iga Swiatek in the 2024 Roland Garros. Likewise, she served for the match in last season’s US Open semi-final against Amanda Amnisova. You could have forgiven her had nerves kicked in at SW 19. Instead, she now faces Karolina Muchova in the quarter-finals.

Image Credit : Adam Bowie

Unlike Sunday’s match, which will be a complete contrast in styles, with the power of Osaka facing the finesse and touch of Muchova. With Iga Swiatek, Sabalenka and Amnisova already out, you have to say, based on form, Osaka becomes the favourite to lift her first Wimbledon title.

Coco Gauff knows how to win Grand Slams, but still looks awkward on the grass with her ill-suited forehand. Jessica Pegula knows how to play on the grass but has yet to put it together on the Grand Slam stage. In the bottom half, a fully-firing Maddison Keys could cause some issues, but there is still so much to do before reaching the final.

So, in many ways, it’s in Osaka’s hands. Should she sustain the remarkable level, she should win her fifth Grand Slam title, taking her one behind Swiatek’s total of six. And should she manage it, it would surely be one of the sporting stories of the season. Five years after her last Major title, with anxiety issues and time away from the sport due to maternity leave, can she return to the top of the sport with the most famous title of all?

Either way, there is a match with Muchova to deal with, which is sure to be a treat.