Germany experienced a seismic shift in its political landscape at the weekend as the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), emerged victorious. 

The snap election came after Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his finance minister, Christian Linder. This caused the coalition to collapse and allowed the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) to achieve its best-ever result. Securing 20.8 per cent of the vote, Germany’s election left the Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffering from a dramatic collapse, its worst since World War Two.

The result means Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU/CSU bloc is likely to become Germany’s next chancellor, vowing to begin coalition negotiations immediately. 

“We have nearly eight weeks until Easter now, and I think that should be enough time to form a government,” Merz stated. However, the process is expected to be complex, given the fractured nature of the election results.

Preliminary results show that the CDU/CSU secured 28.5 per cent of the vote, maintaining their status as Germany’s leading political force. Meanwhile, the incumbent SPD saw their share of the vote fall to only 16.4 per cent, as they became the latest political party of the left to struggle against the right.

Following the results, Chancellor Olaf Scholz conceded defeat, calling the result “very bitter” and confirming that he would not represent the SPD in coalition talks with a CDU-led government.

The Green Party, part of the previous ruling coalition, also saw a decline, securing just 11.6% of the vote while the Free Democratic Party (FDP), another former coalition partner, suffered an even greater blow, failing to reach the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament, finishing at 4.4%.

Despite their significant gains, the AfD remains politically isolated due to the long-standing “firewall” agreement, which prevents mainstream parties from forming coalitions with them. Co-leader Alice Weidel celebrated the result, saying “We have arrived as a party of the people. Without the AfD in coalition, no change of policy is possible in Germany.”

A glance at an election results map highlights the AfD’s dominance in the East of Germany apart from areas such as Berlin and Leipzig. As voters grow concerned over migration, the war in Ukraine and the economy, one in five voters opted to vote for the AfD.

The AfD’s success in the polls had triggered a backlash, with anti-fascist protests erupting in cities like Berlin and Frankfurt in the weeks prior to the election. Demonstrators expressed concern over the party’s growing influence and its potential impact on Germany’s political direction.

However, the far right was not the only so-called hard-line party to see their share of the vote rise. One of the biggest surprises of the election was the resurgence of the hard-left Left Party, Die Linke, which exceeded the 5% threshold and secured 8.8% of the vote. Meanwhile, the newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) narrowly missed entering parliament with 4.9%.

So, what next for Germany? The path to forming a new government remains uncertain. Friedrich Merz will need to negotiate coalition agreements, potentially with multiple partners, to establish a stable government. As he put it, “The most important thing is to re-establish a viable government in Germany as quickly as possible…. the world out there is not waiting for us.”

Germany’s political landscape is changing rapidly, and with growing divisions between the mainstream and the far right, the coming weeks will be crucial in shaping the country’s future. Whether Merz can navigate the complexities of coalition politics remains to be seen, but one thing is certain – Germany’s electorate has signalled a clear demand for change.