As anyone who follows politics will have noticed, populist figures making grand promises with little substance have been dominating the headlines worldwide. Scotland is no exception. Just the other day, Richard Tice, deputy leader of Reform UK, arrived in Glasgow, making headlines with a bizarre visit to a chip shop where he posed outside and proclaimed: “Drill Scotland, Drill.” While this stunt may have been designed to grab attention, it perfectly captured Reform UK’s approach to politics—bold rhetoric but little in the way of real solutions.

Just like the UK, Scotland is undergoing a shift in its political landscape. In a move that sent shockwaves through Glasgow’s local government, Scottish Conservative councillors John Gray and Ross Lambie defected to Reform UK. Their departure underscores the growing presence of a party attempting to position itself as a fresh right-wing alternative to the Scottish Conservatives. But beneath the surface, Reform is simply riding the wave of anti-incumbency and lacks the substance to be a viable force in Scottish politics.

At first glance, Reform’s rise might seem like a challenge to the SNP. However, if you take a deeper look, it reveals a different reality—one that plays directly into the nationalists’ hands. As Reform chips away at disillusioned Conservative voters, it risks fracturing the pro-Union vote, weakening the party’s capable of challenging the SNP’s dominance.

With Reform UK polling ahead of the Conservatives in Scotland for the first time, the question isn’t just whether they can sustain this momentum—it’s whether their presence will hand the SNP the political advantage they have long been looking for.

Gray and Lambie’s switch was announced at a Reform UK press event attended by Richard Tice, yet the event took an awkward turn when Tice appeared unable to remember the names of his new defectors or even the councils they represented. This moment highlighted Reform’s lack of organisational strength and deep political roots in Scotland.

Polling data from the Scottish Election Study suggests Reform UK has surged to become Scotland’s third-largest party, polling at 17% in the constituency vote and 18% in the regional vote ahead of the 2026 Holyrood elections—placing them ahead of the Conservatives. However, a closer look at these numbers exposes vulnerabilities.

Much of Reform’s support comes from disaffected working-class men and former Conservative voters frustrated with both the UK and Scottish leadership. But Reform faces a major issue—it lacks a credible policy platform beyond the usual rhetoric on immigration and opposition to ‘woke’ culture wars, topics that resonate more in England than in Scotland. Unlike Westminster elections, Holyrood politics is shaped by the independence debate, devolution policies, and a more complex social-democratic consensus. Reform UK appears out of its depth in these areas, failing to offer serious alternatives to SNP governance.

Governing requires difficult decisions, and while Reform UK’s policies may sound appealing at first glance, a proper analysis raises many concerns. Take taxation, for instance. Reform proposes raising the income tax threshold from £12,500 to £20,000, which would create a massive hole in government revenue. The estimated cost of these tax cuts would be in the tens of billions, forcing either severe cuts to public spending or a substantial increase in borrowing—both of which would strain an already struggling economy.

On law and order, Reform intends to recruit 40,000 more police officers. While this might create safer streets, it contradicts the party’s commitment to reducing public spending. A more sustainable approach might involve improving working conditions and pay for existing officers—a position long advocated by the Scottish Conservatives.

Regarding healthcare, Reform has suggested increasing NHS funding by £17 billion and expanding private sector involvement. While a French-style healthcare system might be practical in theory, the NHS is deeply embedded in British culture. Reform’s proposals could lead to higher out-of-pocket costs for lower-income individuals, ultimately worsening healthcare access for the most vulnerable. In contrast, the Scottish Conservatives have argued for increased NHS funding without fundamentally altering the structure of the health service, ensuring accessibility remains a priority.

For years, the Scottish Conservatives have been the SNP’s primary opposition, consistently defending the Union while holding the Scottish Government accountable for economic mismanagement, education failures, and NHS performance. In the 2021 Holyrood election, the Tories secured 31 seats, reinforcing their role as the main opposition against an SNP majority. However, if Reform siphons off even a small percentage of the unionist vote, it could cost key regional list seats—allowing the SNP to strengthen its grip on Holyrood.

Electoral experts warn that Reform’s presence in Scotland will most likely hand marginal constituencies and list seats to the SNP or the Greens, further entrenching the pro-independence movement. While Reform may claim to oppose the SNP, their very existence in Scotland actively benefits them.

Another issue for Reform UK is its lack of a coherent policy platform tailored to Scotland. The party has largely imported its English-focused messaging, focusing on Brexit (which Scotland overwhelmingly opposed), migration (a reserved matter controlled by Westminster), and broad attacks on the ‘political elite.’ What Reform fails to grasp is that Scottish politics does not operate in the same way as in England. Voters care about devolved issues—education, the NHS, and public services—areas where Reform offers little beyond vague pledges of ‘common sense’ governance.

Meanwhile, the Scottish Conservatives, offer a more pragmatic approach. They have laid out policies to tackle Scotland’s declining education standards, support businesses with targeted tax relief rather than blanket cuts and ensure healthcare reform without dismantling the NHS. Their policies are designed to work within the existing system rather than proposing drastic overhauls that could create more problems than they solve.

Reform UK’s rise might excite those disillusioned with mainstream politics, but in practical terms, it is little more than a protest vote. By backing them, voters risk splitting the unionist vote and handing the SNP the one thing they need most: division among their opponents.