Scottish Highers have been the gateway to university applications for years. As one of the most important qualifications in Scotland, they’ve shaped the academic and professional future of thousands of students. But in recent years, some are wondering: Are these grades getting easier to achieve? Is it grade inflation, or are students truly performing better?

Analysing the data from the past decade, makes it clear how things have changed.

Rising A Grades: A Post-Pandemic Trend

In 2009, just 25.2 per cent of students achieved an A grade. By 2019, that number had climbed to 28.5 per cent, but it wasn’t until 2021 that things really changed. In that year, the percentage of A grades surged to a record-breaking 47.6 per cent, largely due to the shift to teacher-assessed grading during the pandemic.

Fast forward to 2023, and that number has settled at 33.3 per cent. While it’s still significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, it’s clear that the increase isn’t just a temporary spike – this is part of a bigger trend.

What About the Most Popular Subjects?

Looking closer at the four most popular subjects in 2023, we observe a strikingly similar trend.

Mathematics

English

Biology

Chemistry

For all four of these subjects, the story is the same: steady improvements in top grades over the years, a massive spike during the pandemic, and then a slight dip afterward – although it is still higher than in pre pandemic levels.

The surge in the attainment of top grades can be explained by the shift to teacher-assessed grading, which often resulted in a more favourable outcome. Another factor may be that improved teaching techniques and better resources have led to improvements. While these factors are likely influential, it is more challenging to claim that exams are ‘easier’ than to acknowledge that Scottish students are simply achieving better results now than they were 10 years ago.

The Impact on University Admissions

A key question remains: What impact does this trend have on university admissions? The following table illustrates what 2023 attainment results would have looked like had they followed the same distribution as in 2009.

Note: The number of total entries was 191,820. These figures represent subject entries rather than individual students; nearly all students sit Higher English, so the number of unique students is closer to 35,520.

In 2023, one-third of students attained an A, up from one-fourth in 2009 – an increase that has resulted in over 15,000 additional top grades being awarded. While this doesn’t necessarily mean that students are less skilled or less deserving of their grades, it now means that an A holds less distinguishing value than it did in 2009. This inflation of top grades has forced universities to become more selective, increasing the likelihood that highly qualified school leavers are turned away from institutions such as Glasgow, Edinburgh, and St. Andrews. 

In response, universities may place greater emphasis on extracurricular achievements – such as volunteering and personal statements – or introduce standardised assessments similar to the SAT in the United States or entrance exams used by Oxford and Cambridge. Policies related to affirmative action may also become more prominent, especially with the goal of increasing diversity. For example, some universities may prefer male candidates over female ones, as the student body tends to be more female than male; at Glasgow University, 42 per cent of students are male and 58 per cent are female, while at Edinburgh University, 38 per cent of students are male and 62 per cent are female. Additionally, the Scottish government has set a goal for 20 per cent of higher education entrants to come from the most deprived 20 per cent of the population by 2030.

The sustained rise in top grades within Scottish Highers presents both opportunities and challenges. On the one hand, it may reflect genuine improvements in education, whether through better teaching techniques, enhanced resources, or curriculum reforms. On the other, it raises concerns about grade inflation, particularly its impact on university admissions.

If more students achieve top marks, universities must find alternative ways to differentiate applicants – placing greater weight on extracurriculars, personal statements, internal examination or socio-economic background. 

As Scotland moves toward its goal of widening access to higher education, the long-term implications of this trend remain uncertain. Will grade inflation continue, further reshaping university admissions and employer perceptions? Or will standardisation efforts stabilize attainment levels? What is clear is that the value of an A today is not what it was in 2009, and institutions – both academic and professional – must adapt accordingly. 

Niklas Lange

Interested in Data Journalism