The Scottish Premiership title race took another twist this midweek, with three deciding late goals in each of the contenders’ matches. In a tight and frantic Tuesday night Edinburgh derby, Hearts once again left it late to take all three points from bitter rivals Hibernian. This time, Tomas Magnusson‘s strike was enough to make the difference. The following evening, Celtic and Rangers walked out to face Livingston at home and Motherwell away and at 9:30pm, it seemed that Danny Röhl’s men were set for a hard-fought 1-0 win away to Motherwell, especially since Lukas Fadinger had been sent off for the home side. At the same time, Celtic entered injury time, a goal a piece and searching for a winner. Just fifteen minutes later, the picture had been turned on its head. Celtic had found another late goal, this time Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain scoring on his debut. Meanwhile, Stephen Welsh (on loan from the Champions) grabbed a stoppage time equaliser at Fir Park. Sometimes you just can’t script Scottish football.
Nevertheless, a new weekend of fixtures awaits, so let’s predict how they will pan out.
Dundee (10) v Livingston(12)
Recent Form: WLLDL V DLLLL
Head-to-Head:2-0, 1-0, 4-1, 3-2, 2-2
Not too long ago, Dundee had picked up some considerable form, recording three wins on the bounce. It was this run that temporarily propelled them out of the immediate relegation battle. However, such momentum has come and gone, and with just one point in their last four league games, they are now just three points above a resurgent Kilmarnock. Their creativity must improve; to put it simply, they just don’t score enough. In terms of XG created across the whole season, they sit at the bottom. They face a Livingston side who haven’t registered a league win since August. With Marvin Bartley stepping in as manager to replace David Martindale, the Lions have recorded back-to-back 2-1 losses against Falkirk and Celtic. With two narrow defeats, Bartley’s men will have a change of fortune and come away with a point.
Prediction: Dundee 1-1 Livingston
Falkirk (6) v Dundee United (8)
Recent Form: LWLWW V WLLLL
Head-to-Head: 2-2, 3-0
Falkirk have been the feel-good story of the season and sit comfortably in the top half. They have brought their expansive style of play into the top division but added some physicality to the team to make it more sustainable. With seven wins in nine, the Bairns will be leapfrogging Hibernian, who they sit level with on goal difference. In contrast, Dundee United have played just two matches since the seventeenth of January and have lost four straight league games and won just one of their last seven. They have been inconsistent, showing signs of quality against Celtic, Rangers and Hearts but failed to back it up against the rest of the 12. Yet the tangerines will be fresh and raring to make their recent poor form a thing of the past. The reverse fixture was an opening-day thriller and perhaps we will be in for something similar.
Prediction: Falkirk 3-2 Dundee United
Hibernian (5) v St Mirren (9)
Recent Form: DLDWL V LDDWL
Head-to-Head: 1-2, 0-0, 2-2, 1-1, 0-3
It was the same old story for Hibs in their midweek late loss to Hearts. They came agonisingly close to recording an impressive draw at Tynecastle, just as they did in October. However, it all unravelled late on. They come up against a St Mirren side who have been rather unlucky this season. In terms of chance creation differential, they sit 6th and have the highest underperformance of any side. Of course, due to being behind in a lot of games, teams may have opted for a more defensive finish to the game, allowing the accumulation of low-quality chances, yet even allowing for that, the gap is unusually big. Overall, the Hibees have had some convincing home displays against sides lower down the table and that will prove to be the case again on Saturday afternoon.
Prediction: Hibs 3-1 St Mirren
Kilmarnock (11) v Celtic (3)
Recent Form: DLWLW V WWDWW
Head-to-Head: 0-4, 0-2, 1-5, 1-2, 0-4
With two dramatic late shows against Dundee and Livingston, Martin O’Neill will be breathing a huge sigh of relief. Now, if the Hoops win their game in hand, they will draw level on points at the summit with Hearts. Yet, the fact that two home games against low-end opposition caused so many issues is concerning. They have lacked the clinical edge you are used to seeing from Celtic sides all season. The home side Kilmarnock were just a minute away from recording an impressive draw in the reverse fixture in September but were denied by a late Kelechi Iheanacho penalty. The Nigerian has subsequently fallen out of favour after the acquisitions of Tomas Cvancara and Junior Adamu. With a confident Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain in the side, Celtic will produce a convincing display to continue Martin O’Neill’s near-perfect domestic record.
Prediction: Kilmarnock 0-2 Celtic
Motherwell (4) v Aberdeen (7)
Recent Form: WDWWD V LLLWL
Head-to-Head: 2-0, 1-4, 1-0, 2-0, 1-1
Stephen Welsh’s late equaliser made the headlines and highlighted just what an incredible job Jens Berthel Askou is doing. As cynical as it sounds, it seems less and less likely that he will be in the Fir Park dugout come next season. Nicolas Rakskin’s early goal was the first goal conceded in ten home games. They have also lost just one of their last 17 overall . Aberdeen in contrast, have been a car-crash since the start, and have won just one game since the turn of the year. It’s hard to see how they come away with a result on the weekend. Against lower-end teams, individual quality and moments of brilliance can show through, but against such a well-oiled machine, it feels like they are on a hiding to nothing.
Prediction: Motherwell 3-0 Aberdeen
Rangers (2) v Hearts (1)
Recent Form: WWDWD V WDWLW
Head-to-Head:0-0, 1-0, 3-1, 0-2, 1-2
Now for the popcorn affair. Scotland’s top two will face off on Sunday evening, although it’s very likely that the pecking order will have changed come kick-off. If Celtic defeat Kilmarnock, they will sit two points above Rangers and three behind Hearts. So, both will feel some considerable pressure. Yet, with the game at Ibrox, it feels like this is a must-win for Rangers more than anything. A win for Hearts would open up an eight-point gap. Clawing back yet more points would be too big an ask. Especially when they’d be chasing two teams. Although Hearts have still managed to churn out some results, the performances haven’t been convincing. It’s what makes this tie so unpredictable. With home advantage on their side, Rangers will edge it.
Prediction: Rangers 1-0 Hearts